#IndiaStrikesBack - Part 1 | Striking Parallels

#IndiaStrikesBack – Finally! Something that was long overdue.

For my uninitiated readers across the globe, for the first time since India’s Independence in 1947, Indian Army has crossed the unresolved Line of Control [LoC] in Kashmir and entered Pakistan occupied Kashmir [Pok], neutralising 7 terrorist launch pads across 4 locations. It is a proud moment for any Indian that loves peace. Finally, an answer back to the instigators that adventures like Uri and Pathankot attacks on Indian army instalments, killing scores of Indian soldiers without provocation would not go unpunished. Today, being a proud Indian, I can state that India does and can attack at its own will and choosing of a time and place against any adversary that works against the interests and integrity of India. It looks good on text-books when one reads that India has never been an aggressor in the last 5000 years of its existence. Now when the existence and more importantly the ideologies are threatened that makes up the very nation, it is high time, the polices are reviewed, revised and updated.

Every surgery aims to cure the patient. In this case, the surgery precisely took out a tumour [terrorist launch-pads] and rendered the patient [Pakistan] in a coma as a fallout, albeit temporarily – a first of many firsts to come. It is the coming of age of India as a stronger nation in the current geo-political set-up where foreign policies are concerned. But the cancer has spread far and wide. It needs regular chemotherapy at different parts of the body – starting with Baluchistan, NWFP, Gilgit-Baltistan under PoK, etc.

There are many areas that I would like to touch upon but is not possible to compile into a single blog post. This is the first of the series that touches upon how Pakistan as a state has failed and has remained unchanged over the last 70 years despite its ideologies and failing as a state every time when its time to rise and shine came and went away; the similarities between the situation of 1971 and 2016 are starkly similar!...

For any Army in a Democratic set-up, Political backing is must [Pakistan doesn’t fall into this category; it is the other way around in case of Pakistan]. An army is what it’s political masters wants it to be. It can be a destructive lethal weapon, like German SS in World War II leading to Blitzkrieg or it can be completely apolitical like Indian Army which hardly meddles in the political affairs of the country. Indian Army had almost lost its edge and was toothless in its effectiveness after Independence due to Nehruvian policies of pacifism and NAM; believing China to be too docile to attack India. Jolt – rather a rude shock came in the form of humiliating defeat of 1962 Chinese aggression that left India red-faced and was caught pants down; showing that if you value peace, one cannot compromise with its defence. It’s easy to preach about love and compassion when the borders are secure. Henderson-Brooks report was instrumental in highlighting the deficiencies that were rectified to an extent by 1965 and finally fully implemented before 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War under the stewardship of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Indian Army, has been always held under a tight leash with poor political will throughout its 70yrs of existence, except during brief periods of Prime-Ministership of Mrs. Gandhi. Hopefully, Mr. Modi’s Prime Ministership  would bring back that old glory that every major power yearns to achieve.

There are many parallels that can be drawn in this regard, between 1971 situation and 2016.

Firstly, Pakistan was in a similar situation of instigating conflict in both the occasions. Massacre of Bengali intellectuals and mass genocide and meddling in the affairs at provincial level then, overriding the federal government in East Pakistan was the chief cause of 1971 conflict; that eventually led to the creation of Bangladesh. In current scenario, it’s the low intensity conflicts and now continuous disturbance in Kashmir since the killing of Hizbul Commander Burhan Wani, which are alarmingly occurring at regular intervals within India.

Secondly, India was and is almost perceived a weakling globally; India had lost the 1962 war; From 1966-1969, India was in a constant state of famine and also had to fight a costly war in 1965. We had to import wheat from US which were not fit for human consumption under PL-480 where Mrs. Gandhi had to face humiliation from Kissinger and Nixon; which ultimately gave rise to the Green Revolution. Presently, India has gone through a political logjam of UPA2 that throttled Indian growth to a huge extent being a coalition government with an extremely poor track-record with scams to gloat about. After 2001 Parliament Attack, followed by 26/11, Indian response has been largely muted. Every possible trick in the book in accordance with diplomacy and Track-II dialogues have been explored to cajole Pakistan, but without any success.

Thirdly, in a bi-polar and pluralistic world, there were NATO and Warsaw Pacts during 1970’s that influenced the world engagements. US clearly sided with Pakistan while India had the backing of USSR in the 1971 conflict. Today, while US is in a difficult position to side with Pakistan out of little choice, Pakistan’s real ally is the new super-power in rising – PR China. India still has the backing of USSR and USA – a reversal of policies [which I will cover in Part 2 on this topic]; but the point that I want to drive home is that there are clearly 2 groups that has to gain out of this engagement; One is China which is a now behemoth in its own rights with enough economic clout and the other is US that has a natural ally in India as it stretches itself thin across the world and cannot do without India given the decline in the world authority that is has seen over the past decade. America’s glory days are well over and is in slow decline.

Fourthly, the brazenness with which India had intervened in 1971 and now proactively conducted the surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory when the world, and especially Pakistan least expected it. Pakistani army was actually caught napping; Pakistani army and terrorist casualties in the recent surgical strikes by India were being passed as cross-border firing by Pak DG-ISPR; too humiliated to accept the fact that a surgical strike indeed has been conducted by India, that stains the reputation of Pakistani Army, which is sacrosanct.

Fifthly and rightly so – a strong personality based Indian leadership. Mrs. Gandhi left a lasting impression on the history of Independent India during her tumultuous rule. So does Mr. Modi who had to face enough political challenges to rise and become the PM. Both became the PM due to their charismatic personality and being able to move the masses. Both have uncanny similarities in the way they function.

Lastly, the raison d’etre of Pakistan’s existence [a topic in itself]. Pakistan [which is an acronym] was created based on Jinnah’s “Two Nation Theory” propagated by Iqbal but actually initiated by Sir Syed Ahmed Khan. During 1971, it was a nation still in experimentation, going though alternate coups and civilian government leadership and subjugating the more learned and intellectual East Pakistanis under the rules, culture and traditions of West Pakistan. Urdu was declared the national language without taking into account the rich Bengali literature and traditions that has given a Noble Laureate and ultimately the National Anthem of both Bangladesh and India; basically a culture clash between two groups in the same country separated by a thousand miles that were broadly dissimilar in every possible way but united by a common faith. After the humiliating loss of half the territory in 1971 which India had to intervene giving rise to the independent nation of Bangladesh, Pakistan then focussed single-handedly on bleeding India through thousand cuts that started at the fag-end of eighties and have continued to this date, unabated – reaching its pinnacle during the Kargil misadventure. In reality, Pakistan as a state, in my opinion, failed in 1971 – unable to uphold the tenets of ‘Two Nation Theory” advocated by the founding father, Mr. Jinnah.

Today, Pakistani intelligentsia and military elite have been subjugated under a systemic pressure and culture to identify India as a common enemy, to the extent that history has been completely re-written in school text-books that identifies India as the aggressor in the all the wars that has been fought with India and none of the wars where Pakistan has conceded any defeat. Pakistan officially denies any defeat at the hands of India and has been able to brain-wash generations through its education system. There are enough proofs of the same – the most vocal being Ms. Christine Fair who has done extensive studies on Indo-Pak relationship, having written numerous books and spent a number of years in Pakistan; at the moment she is banned to travel to Pakistan at behest of Pakistan’s infamous ISI. She has even lambasted a Pakistani Fulbright scholar on his ignorance that Kashmir is not an integral part of Pakistan based on UN resolution when he foolishly tries to portray that Mr. Fair’s evidence of Pakistani legitimacy on Kashmir is questionable. The video below is the proof in itself!

So what is next for Pakistan? Now, that it is no longer a functioning state like it should? The thought is scary indeed. It is a melting pot of terrorists – Specifically, Wahhabi ideologies funded by Middle East and sympathizers of Al-Qaida, Haqqani Network and then you have Good Taliban [Anti-India] and Bad Taliban. Not to forget and mention that some of the Uighur dissents that keeps China on their toes in Western China had their training in Pakistan. Pakistan today stands out like a sore thumb where terrorism is concerned. Most of the terrorists across the globe have some link or other with Pakistan. Shia-Sunni is another complex matter/dimension that would take up an entire discussion altogether.

It is not in India’s interest that Pakistan fails as a nation. But when the national ideology, the basis on which a nation was formed has failed, it is pertinent to ask the question – is it relevant to prop up a nation on ventilator? Or let the patient die? For long Pakistan has solely survived on the aids provided by USA that has gone into arms procurement to deter India. Today, if one delves in finding out what Pakistan exports, it will not be wrong to say that, “Terrorism as a service” [TaaS] is the only thing that comes to mind.

It needs to be pondered!

To be Continued...

Game of Anarchy, touches upon few of the points of backdoor diplomacy in such tricky situations...

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Turkey Shoot in Turkey

2016 has been one of the bloodiest years so far in this decade. Extremism is spreading far and wide. What was typically considered a middle-east and south-east Asia problem, has effectively taken roots in Europe. And that unfortunately is here to stay – a harsh reality. On the positive note, it is fortunate that Europe has better gun control laws than US, else it would have been much worse to rein in the dissidents, given the current spate of lone wolf attacks across Europe. The Metropolitan Police Chief, UK, Sir Bernard Hogan Howe has clearly stated that it is not a matter of if, but rather when a terror attack may take place in UK. It is worrisome indeed.

But more interesting and seemingly out of context was the recent events in Turkey. The coup doesn’t really surprise me, though its failure does. Turkey is at a critical juncture –  militarily, politically and strategically. It has the second largest army by size in Europe and fairly modern and well trained. Being a NATO partner, it’s primary responsibility is to thwart any possible aggression by ISIS into Europe. But the dynamics of engagement are extremely complex.

A simple example of this complex equation is the dealing with the Kurds. The 3 main Kurdish groups based on their location –  the Turkish Kurds, Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds. The below chart depicts the relationship they have with Turkey and vice-versa and how they are battling ISIS together – a multi-player war fighting each other.

On one hand, Turkey is at loggerheads with PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] and YPG, while on the other, Turkey does support the Iraqi Kurds or the Peshmarga troops. One of the greatest dichotomy is how Turkey selectively allows arms and ammunition to pass on to the Iraqi Kurds while blocking the same for the PKK, obviously keeping its own national interests in mind. A weakened PKK and YPG is beneficial for Turkey. A country which is democratically ruled, is well allowed to make its policies – but unfortunately as is the case with all such outcomes, civil rights and liberties have been curtailed to rein in these dissidents.

From strategic perspective, not only Turkey is a NATO ally with ISIS at its borders, it acts as a buffer state to keep the menace of ISIS at bay. Its geostrategic location has been fully utilised by NATO troops to launch countless raids on ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has also been well funded to stem the tide of refugees pouring into Europe. Recent talks are also underway to include Turkey in EU.

Now, it needs further analysis why the coup was orchestrated and it easily points to one key factor – Mr. Ergodan’s policies. It needs to be lauded here that Turkey is one of the few countries in the world that has majority Muslim population and has been able to remain secular in its outlook fundamentally and constitutionally. The President, Mr Ergodan, is seemingly popular, but there have been accusations for centralising the power and slowly eroding the secular outlook that Turkey enjoys.

Fundamentally, the Turkish Military and Judiciary believes themselves to be the guardians of ideals on which Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the country. That is why, one has witnessed the dismissal of huge number of judges in the coup aftermath. There were four successful coup attempts in Turkey in the past which was able to remove the governments. Fifth resulted in a disastrous failure.

There have been finger pointing, mud-slinging and accusations at the various instigators involved both within and outside the country [Fethullah Gulen], but the question remains – why the coup failed and what were the objectives?

While the objectives of this coup were not clear, but the factors mentioned above, could easily provide some clarity as to why the coup was orchestrated. The major cause of failure can be attributed to one single fact – the interconnected world that we live in – internet and social media coupled with network centric lives that we are now used to played a critical role for coup failure. The coup plotters were not able to block all media communications. Mr. Ergodan was able to connect to the outside world through FaceTime and had effectively used social media to instigate common public to rise against the military to oppose them, within hours of attempt on his life, despite blocking state media channels. We were able to get live updates of the situation through Periscope views, twitter and even Facebook Live! It is the single biggest cause for failure according to me that has worked against the coup plotters. They did not envisage such a scenario despite trying to cut access to internet. Also, there was lack of total public support.

If the coup would have been successful, would it have led to a better Turkey? Maybe, but at what cost? Still countless lives would have been lost. Now that the coup was a failure, it has weakened the Turkish state further – vast number of senior military personnel have been dismissed leaving Turkey militarily weak. It will take Turkey decades to replace the losses. Mr. Ergodan, in all his rights will come down heavily on the dissidents and choke up opposition further while cementing his position. Death penalty may be re-instigated. Open discourse and debates will be frowned upon. Voice of democracy, in the name of democracy will be muffled. It is a sad and sorry state indeed.

In my book, “Game of Anarchy”, I argue on these points, how difficult it is to attempt a coup in this digital age and era. It is seemingly impossible to cut off all communication channels and ensure radio silence. Common man has a voice of his own and through digital interconnectedness can topple governments as Arab Spring demonstrated. In Turkey’s case, common man rose to the occasion to resist the coup. There were even live feeds that showed people beating up tank commanders, dragging them out from the tanks. This reminds me the picture of a lone individual standing up courageously against an oncoming tank in Tienanmen Square, China in 1989 – what a stark contrast!

In developed and developing countries today, the age of dictatorship is almost over. It still remains in the under-developed countries like DPR Korea, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, etc. But it will steadily decline as the world gets more interconnected and openly accepts the idea of liberty and equality.

In the book “Game of Anarchy”, there is one more angle that was touched upon – constitutional strength that is conferred upon the civilians vs. the army and whether army can remain apolitical when internal crises arise. As is the case with Indian Army, which has remained always apolitical vs. Pakistan military which has overthrown multiple governments over the past 70 yrs of independence. It was the strength and test of character of Indian Army where there was debate whether to involve the armed forces directly in combating the Maoist insurgencies that affects 13 states in India – the then Indian Army General cautioned that it is akin to engaging the army to fire at its own citizens; eventually only Indian Air Force was involved, and that too at a passive role. An army when called upon, it destroys everything in its path effectively – the very reason for its existence; and hence cannot be used to tackle civilian outcry everytime, except in certain dire circumstances. As someone commented, Army is a broad sword and not a scalpel.

In conclusion, this is not the last coup that we will see. The one in Turkey is a precursor to much more complex methods that will originate over a period of time that will topple unpopular governments when voice of dissidence is choked. The variables will change, so will be the methods. But this coup failure will stand out as one of the reminders and lessons to future coup plotters that even the best of the plots can and will fail if public support is missing and technological innovations aren’t factored in. The power is effectively at the hands of the people!

“Game of Anarchy” is available on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Game-Anarchy-Kenneth-Jones-ebook/dp/B01J6MR6GS

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