To Be or Not To Be | India's Energy Consumption vs Growth Dilemma

World is witnessing incredible changes in the sphere of environment sustainability in this decade. The steps taken, though tentative, are instrumental in reversing the damages caused due to rapid industrialization over the last 2 centuries.

Kyoto Protocol has been hailed as the most successful initiative so far that had the blessings and willingness of more than 190 countries – an amazing feat. It has been able to heal the ozone layer to an extent in a short span of 2 decades. More recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change was ratified by again a similar number of countries in less than 11 months of its conception – another wonderful feat indeed considering the challenges that are inherently associated with such a large number of countries with their own demands and needs & getting the same accommodated to everyone’s satisfaction as was highlighted by Prof. Ghosh of CEEW at the seminar conducted by Takshashila in Delhi on 5th Nov, 2016.

But few questions remain.

One should ask – Is it enough? There is enough criticism on the content of the Paris Agreement. Firstly, it is largely non-binding on the member countries. Secondly, many estimates suggest that the current commitment of NDCs are too low to restrict temperature rise below 2 degrees, while restricting it below 1.5 degrees by 2100 is more preferable. Thirdly, there are enough caveats for the developed countries to bypass the existing commitments [like purchasing Carbon Credits] – which no doubt is a great instrument in investing in cleaner energy in developing worlds; but essentially provides the right to pollute by more wealthy countries. Fourthly, it has a finance component of USD 100 Billion to be invested by 2025 which seems to be a challenge.

With respect to the last point about climate finance, Green Climate Fund [GCF] was proposed, established and operationalised in COP 15 [Copenhagen Accord], COP 16 [Cancun] and COP 17 [Durban] respectively. The objective was to generate a fund of USD 100 Billion by 2020. But only USD 10.3 Billion could be raised from member countries – with major European Countries facing tough financial situation during the period. It seems the that finance component of the new Paris Agreement is the extension of the same with an extended target. How much of it would be feasible and successful is yet to be seen; given the history of poor generation of finance from the wealthy countries who have a moral obligation to invest in such areas that focus on cleaner technologies.

But still Paris agreement is a positive step in the right direction. It focusses primarily on adaptation of new technologies rather than Mitigation. Thereby, it stresses on use and investment in cleaner and newer technology, rather than implementing safeguard measures and workarounds on the existing polluting means of energy generation. It will be a quantum jump for the developing nations and underdeveloped nations to directly use and utilise these technologies which do not come cheap. It is in the world’s best interests that the developed countries provide these technologies at an effective viable cost and subsidize where necessary along with a liberal IPR policy where required - in order to allow these technologies to be widely adopted; so that the social benefits are not traded off with development goals of these nations.

What should India do?

India has done quite a lot in this regard – slowly gaining traction as a pioneer of thought leadership in this arena. India has in place relevant laws enacted domestically to counter and support the stand it needs to take globally. But more importantly, Mr. Modi has led from the front with the foundation of International Solar Alliance – a grouping of 121 poorer and developing countries, pledging growth with the help of greener energy. Converting this motley alliance of 121 countries into a strong buyers’ club effectively has put the ball in the court of the richer developed countries that has a moral obligation to financially support these countries in the goal of achieving energy independence through cleaner energy without compromising on the developmental aspects.

One aspect that goes in India’s favour is that, there can be proper planning to add new energy sources to the existing power grids – evaluating in advance whether it will be through existing standard power generation techniques primarily thermal and nuclear power plants or through other means like hydel, tidal, wind or solar. GoI has already announced the target of 175,000 MW of renewable energy production to be achieved by 2022 as follows: 100,000 MW from solar power, 60,000 MW from wind energy, 10,000 MW from biomass and 5,000 MW from small hydro power projects. This provides a clear sense of direction.

Subsidies are already in place for both producers and consumers promoting solar energy adoption, especially at individual unit level. But unfortunately, the residential units figure at the bottom of the list of priorities for availing the subsidies [1]. Understandably, schools and government institutions like hospitals are higher on priority, but low income groups need to be kept in mind, specially first time energy consumers who may not have the purchasing potential to avail these schemes. There are few pockets in the country where off-grid subsidised solar energy sets are being provided at a minimal price, but as mentioned, these are happening in pockets.

Second aspect to be looked into is how soon can India reach its peak energy demands? This has various aspects and implications. Firstly, peaking is important to consider if the target of temperature rise has to be contained below 1.5 degrees by 2100. Secondly, later we peak, lesser time we have to cut down on emissions. Thirdly, can India afford to declare the peak emissions like China did [2030] at this stage? This doesn’t augur well for India at the moment, and hence no peak year has been mentioned. It would be more apt to look at the consumption pattern for another decade before a peak year is committed – as we are far behind China as far as development goals are concerned. It is a typical catch-22 situation. So, in short it is in India’s best interests to peak its energy demands as fast as possible – implementing and upgrading its existing energy infrastructure as per the policy defined above.

Last aspect being, can there be some radical means to bypass the entire discussion of energy savings and fight between rich and poorer countries on clean energy adoption and technology transfer?

We need radical technologies to effectively change the current pace of environment degradation – many existing estimates suggest that we might be a little late in containing the damage [2] [3]. There are ground-breaking new technologies like SolarCity and Hyperloop One that are being worked upon which will completely revamp two keys areas where energies are consumed in bulk – Housing and Transportation. Elon Musk’s overall objective is to tie in both of these horizontally with his Tesla project thereby creating an effective loop of energy savings. And the best place on Earth to start with, on a large scale should be China and India – two of the largest and fastest economies where appetite for energy is going to increase in the coming decades. Both India and China has to aggressively support such innovative technologies and embed them as part of national policies on energy – so that the right message is sent out to the world that we are indeed serious about climate change it is not all rhetoric and that we will walk the talk. The current challenges seem to be the investment climate of these countries coupled with complex bureaucracies that has a negative effect on investment from these companies in the energy sector.

In conclusion, there are technologies that are focussing on improving the efficiency of existing energy consumption – vehicles, power generators, etc. A renewed focus is on reduce, reuse and recycle. Actions also underway in creating carbon sinks to suck up atmospheric carbon-di-oxide that acts as a greenhouse gas. But the rhetoric is primarily around containing the temp increase below 2 degrees which may not be enough, especially for island countries. Developing countries and India also need to keep their self-interests intact and there are ways and means that have been highlighted above. It may be about time to take a step back and reassess if the existing solutions should be adequate to address the situation or should we focus more on new radical technologies and investment techniques that has more potential in saving the day and assess their impact – however radical it sounds.

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References:

[1] https://www.bijlibachao.com/solar/procedure-to-get-subsidy-on-solar-pv-systems-through-nabard-in-india.html

[2] https://www.carbonbrief.org/two-degrees-will-we-avoid-dangerous-climate-change

[3] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-temperature-idUSKBN0NM40820150501

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#IndiaStrikesBack - Part 1 | Striking Parallels

#IndiaStrikesBack – Finally! Something that was long overdue.

For my uninitiated readers across the globe, for the first time since India’s Independence in 1947, Indian Army has crossed the unresolved Line of Control [LoC] in Kashmir and entered Pakistan occupied Kashmir [Pok], neutralising 7 terrorist launch pads across 4 locations. It is a proud moment for any Indian that loves peace. Finally, an answer back to the instigators that adventures like Uri and Pathankot attacks on Indian army instalments, killing scores of Indian soldiers without provocation would not go unpunished. Today, being a proud Indian, I can state that India does and can attack at its own will and choosing of a time and place against any adversary that works against the interests and integrity of India. It looks good on text-books when one reads that India has never been an aggressor in the last 5000 years of its existence. Now when the existence and more importantly the ideologies are threatened that makes up the very nation, it is high time, the polices are reviewed, revised and updated.

Every surgery aims to cure the patient. In this case, the surgery precisely took out a tumour [terrorist launch-pads] and rendered the patient [Pakistan] in a coma as a fallout, albeit temporarily – a first of many firsts to come. It is the coming of age of India as a stronger nation in the current geo-political set-up where foreign policies are concerned. But the cancer has spread far and wide. It needs regular chemotherapy at different parts of the body – starting with Baluchistan, NWFP, Gilgit-Baltistan under PoK, etc.

There are many areas that I would like to touch upon but is not possible to compile into a single blog post. This is the first of the series that touches upon how Pakistan as a state has failed and has remained unchanged over the last 70 years despite its ideologies and failing as a state every time when its time to rise and shine came and went away; the similarities between the situation of 1971 and 2016 are starkly similar!...

For any Army in a Democratic set-up, Political backing is must [Pakistan doesn’t fall into this category; it is the other way around in case of Pakistan]. An army is what it’s political masters wants it to be. It can be a destructive lethal weapon, like German SS in World War II leading to Blitzkrieg or it can be completely apolitical like Indian Army which hardly meddles in the political affairs of the country. Indian Army had almost lost its edge and was toothless in its effectiveness after Independence due to Nehruvian policies of pacifism and NAM; believing China to be too docile to attack India. Jolt – rather a rude shock came in the form of humiliating defeat of 1962 Chinese aggression that left India red-faced and was caught pants down; showing that if you value peace, one cannot compromise with its defence. It’s easy to preach about love and compassion when the borders are secure. Henderson-Brooks report was instrumental in highlighting the deficiencies that were rectified to an extent by 1965 and finally fully implemented before 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War under the stewardship of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Indian Army, has been always held under a tight leash with poor political will throughout its 70yrs of existence, except during brief periods of Prime-Ministership of Mrs. Gandhi. Hopefully, Mr. Modi’s Prime Ministership  would bring back that old glory that every major power yearns to achieve.

There are many parallels that can be drawn in this regard, between 1971 situation and 2016.

Firstly, Pakistan was in a similar situation of instigating conflict in both the occasions. Massacre of Bengali intellectuals and mass genocide and meddling in the affairs at provincial level then, overriding the federal government in East Pakistan was the chief cause of 1971 conflict; that eventually led to the creation of Bangladesh. In current scenario, it’s the low intensity conflicts and now continuous disturbance in Kashmir since the killing of Hizbul Commander Burhan Wani, which are alarmingly occurring at regular intervals within India.

Secondly, India was and is almost perceived a weakling globally; India had lost the 1962 war; From 1966-1969, India was in a constant state of famine and also had to fight a costly war in 1965. We had to import wheat from US which were not fit for human consumption under PL-480 where Mrs. Gandhi had to face humiliation from Kissinger and Nixon; which ultimately gave rise to the Green Revolution. Presently, India has gone through a political logjam of UPA2 that throttled Indian growth to a huge extent being a coalition government with an extremely poor track-record with scams to gloat about. After 2001 Parliament Attack, followed by 26/11, Indian response has been largely muted. Every possible trick in the book in accordance with diplomacy and Track-II dialogues have been explored to cajole Pakistan, but without any success.

Thirdly, in a bi-polar and pluralistic world, there were NATO and Warsaw Pacts during 1970’s that influenced the world engagements. US clearly sided with Pakistan while India had the backing of USSR in the 1971 conflict. Today, while US is in a difficult position to side with Pakistan out of little choice, Pakistan’s real ally is the new super-power in rising – PR China. India still has the backing of USSR and USA – a reversal of policies [which I will cover in Part 2 on this topic]; but the point that I want to drive home is that there are clearly 2 groups that has to gain out of this engagement; One is China which is a now behemoth in its own rights with enough economic clout and the other is US that has a natural ally in India as it stretches itself thin across the world and cannot do without India given the decline in the world authority that is has seen over the past decade. America’s glory days are well over and is in slow decline.

Fourthly, the brazenness with which India had intervened in 1971 and now proactively conducted the surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory when the world, and especially Pakistan least expected it. Pakistani army was actually caught napping; Pakistani army and terrorist casualties in the recent surgical strikes by India were being passed as cross-border firing by Pak DG-ISPR; too humiliated to accept the fact that a surgical strike indeed has been conducted by India, that stains the reputation of Pakistani Army, which is sacrosanct.

Fifthly and rightly so – a strong personality based Indian leadership. Mrs. Gandhi left a lasting impression on the history of Independent India during her tumultuous rule. So does Mr. Modi who had to face enough political challenges to rise and become the PM. Both became the PM due to their charismatic personality and being able to move the masses. Both have uncanny similarities in the way they function.

Lastly, the raison d’etre of Pakistan’s existence [a topic in itself]. Pakistan [which is an acronym] was created based on Jinnah’s “Two Nation Theory” propagated by Iqbal but actually initiated by Sir Syed Ahmed Khan. During 1971, it was a nation still in experimentation, going though alternate coups and civilian government leadership and subjugating the more learned and intellectual East Pakistanis under the rules, culture and traditions of West Pakistan. Urdu was declared the national language without taking into account the rich Bengali literature and traditions that has given a Noble Laureate and ultimately the National Anthem of both Bangladesh and India; basically a culture clash between two groups in the same country separated by a thousand miles that were broadly dissimilar in every possible way but united by a common faith. After the humiliating loss of half the territory in 1971 which India had to intervene giving rise to the independent nation of Bangladesh, Pakistan then focussed single-handedly on bleeding India through thousand cuts that started at the fag-end of eighties and have continued to this date, unabated – reaching its pinnacle during the Kargil misadventure. In reality, Pakistan as a state, in my opinion, failed in 1971 – unable to uphold the tenets of ‘Two Nation Theory” advocated by the founding father, Mr. Jinnah.

Today, Pakistani intelligentsia and military elite have been subjugated under a systemic pressure and culture to identify India as a common enemy, to the extent that history has been completely re-written in school text-books that identifies India as the aggressor in the all the wars that has been fought with India and none of the wars where Pakistan has conceded any defeat. Pakistan officially denies any defeat at the hands of India and has been able to brain-wash generations through its education system. There are enough proofs of the same – the most vocal being Ms. Christine Fair who has done extensive studies on Indo-Pak relationship, having written numerous books and spent a number of years in Pakistan; at the moment she is banned to travel to Pakistan at behest of Pakistan’s infamous ISI. She has even lambasted a Pakistani Fulbright scholar on his ignorance that Kashmir is not an integral part of Pakistan based on UN resolution when he foolishly tries to portray that Mr. Fair’s evidence of Pakistani legitimacy on Kashmir is questionable. The video below is the proof in itself!

So what is next for Pakistan? Now, that it is no longer a functioning state like it should? The thought is scary indeed. It is a melting pot of terrorists – Specifically, Wahhabi ideologies funded by Middle East and sympathizers of Al-Qaida, Haqqani Network and then you have Good Taliban [Anti-India] and Bad Taliban. Not to forget and mention that some of the Uighur dissents that keeps China on their toes in Western China had their training in Pakistan. Pakistan today stands out like a sore thumb where terrorism is concerned. Most of the terrorists across the globe have some link or other with Pakistan. Shia-Sunni is another complex matter/dimension that would take up an entire discussion altogether.

It is not in India’s interest that Pakistan fails as a nation. But when the national ideology, the basis on which a nation was formed has failed, it is pertinent to ask the question – is it relevant to prop up a nation on ventilator? Or let the patient die? For long Pakistan has solely survived on the aids provided by USA that has gone into arms procurement to deter India. Today, if one delves in finding out what Pakistan exports, it will not be wrong to say that, “Terrorism as a service” [TaaS] is the only thing that comes to mind.

It needs to be pondered!

To be Continued...

Game of Anarchy, touches upon few of the points of backdoor diplomacy in such tricky situations...

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Brexit & Britain's Colonial Past - The Causal Relationship

The dawn of the Industrial Age started with Britain. This initiated a race to find new colonies and conquer new worlds amongst the European powers - The French, Dutch, Spanish and Portuguese all joined the bandwagon. New continents were explored, messengers and diplomats were sent to the famous and legendary kingdoms far and wide - notwithstanding India, new markets were opened that brought in riches, unheard of previously.

But human greed is insatiable. Soon, the economic vision was replaced with a political vision to dominate these markets, turning them into colonies, serving their European masters. India was considered the crown jewel of the British Empire — the Empire where the Sun never sets! India suffered harshly under the British rule no doubt, draining of wealth, turning one of the wealthiest nations into a nation of poor and beggars. All we had intact was a bit of our past culture & heritage and a new found feeling of nationalism of India as a nation - that was missing in India's history for the last 5000 years of its existence. Never ever was India united in the manner as it was at the time of our independence.

Now, what benefits arose out British Rule in India? Many or none as all would argue, depending on your level of nationalistic feelings at that moment and the side you are arguing for. But it is undeniable that English is the Lingua Franca of the world today and Indians are the largest English speaking population outside of England which otherwise wouldn’t have been possible without the British ruling us and replacing the Brahmanic schooling with Victorian curricula. English has benefited us tremendously. It is the sole reason why India is ahead of China in the Services sector. It is a paradox and a case-study how we grew at such a fast pace without manufacturing sector - jumping almost directly from agriculture one day to services the next.

But why am I blabbering about these details… one may wonder? Because when osmosis happens, so does reverse-osmosis. There is a direct causal relationship of the British ruling us and in return impacting them in a manner they couldn’t imagine which would bite them back - so much so that it would be a subtle cause for Brexit.

Imagine a country, who got the taste of tea from India and China which now is part of their daily morning and evening ritual. A country whose national dish is Chicken Tikka Masala, which is so bland in the spices compared to the roadside Chicken Tikkas in India. A country which invented Cricket, but its England and Wales Cricket Board is dependent on BCCI to agree on matches and slots and bow down to them periodically. A country which ruled us through its proxy for almost a century, East India Company, is now owned by an Indian. A country which receives the third largest FDI from India, except US and France. India and its culture has permeated into many aspects of British life - which now no longer can be called uniquely British. So in short, India culturally dominates Britain today, without even sending a single soldier across the border.

Shakespeare would not have imagined even in his wildest dreams that one day his play "A Midsummer Night's Dream" will be hosted at the renovated Globe Theatre at Bankside - with lead actors of Indian origin, the background music score dominated by Veena and supported by Dholak played by Indians resembling a Bollywood ensemble.

A snap-shot of the play: A Midsummer Night's Dream at Shakespeare's Globe, London

In London, when you walk into a Tesco or Sainsbury's, any of Her Majesty's Post Office, board a bus or a train or tube, the servers at major restaurants and the list goes on - majority of staffs are of Indian descent. That ought to say something. Britain would not have had such a bustling Indian population had it not been for the colonial past...

And when a survey was conducted amongst the Indian expats who were eligible to vote for the Brexit Referendum, they voted for Exit as Indian and South-East Asian expats had to go through a more stringent process of immigration as compared to the Europeans and they voted for Exit en masse! It was the point of inflection that resulted in Brexit - where Remain camp lost by only 4 percentage points; it was that close.  In a different context, it may be worthwhile to note that, a fellow South-East Asian, a Pakistani to be precise, Mr. Sadiq Khan has been elected as the Mayor of London, which is no mean feat. And that my friend, as an Indian, makes me feel proud.

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Women Empowerment: Challenges & Prospects

Human beings are the most advanced life form on this planet that sits atop the pyramid of all sentient beings. Being sentient, puts the onus of moral duty on us to be just, altruistic and compassionate to fellow beings and lesser life forms, taking a lead in ensuring peace and order to sustain the balance on Earth.

While present day Homo sapiens are considered more civilized than their barbaric ancestors, it is disquieting to note that, the blessing of a civilized brain did not automatically render the virtues of liberty and equality to be bestowed on all fellow humans across the globe since the first rational human being descended some 40,000 years ago. Whether be it the exploitation of black versus white, poor versus rich or women versus men, human history is replete with innumerous examples of savagery, cruelty and suppression of weak, that defies the very attribute of being sentient. The best example of which being gender inequality and suppression of women even to this day of twenty-first century, so much so that it has become a buzzword both at  global and national forums.

Women empowerment refers to the conducive environment that provides the basic rights and a level playing field to women to excel in all spheres of life – social, political, economic. This also includes extension of specialized treatment by all stake-holders of the society, viz., government agencies, private institutions and NGOs in the areas of health, education, legal, etc. where there has been traditional neglect with respect to women. The crux being the ability to make free and fair decisions by women without being coerced by undue unfavorable circumstances allowing them to perform at par with men.

If one delves into the root cause of why women are treated as inferior sex even today at many parts of the world including India, it directly points out to the informal division of labour that has been the norm in our societies since eons. The quintessential role of men has been to take care of livelihood and protect the family while for women it has been about taking care of children, household chores and other activities within the boundaries of four walls. There have been exceptions though but these are few and far between. India and world as a whole were more tolerant of women a few thousand years ago, than it is today. If one talks about the glyphs of Egypt, Mesopotamia or Indus Valley civilizations, it depicts the various freedom that the women enjoyed – many of which went missing during the subsequent medieval and dark ages of our civilization. Even in India, women during Rig Vedic Period enjoyed greater freedom in all forms including the right to remain spinster and spend entire lives with parents, study and contribute to the hymns of Vedas which vastly diminished during the later Vedic periods. Thus, it is the traditional mindset of thousand years that needs to be broken free to empower women and bring them at par with men in all aspects. In a country like India where people are deeply religious and traditional in nature, it is a greater challenge to percolate the values and ideals of women empowerment, who constitute 49% of Indian population.

Firstly, men are the biggest stakeholders in Women Empowerment. Without their participation, it is bound to fail since it is the men who mostly formulated the rules of engagement with women in the societies. In one of her UN speeches on Women Empowerment, Hillary Clinton noticed that less than 30% of the audience were males. This is a big concern since awareness creation and gender sensitization needs to start with men. This was taken up so seriously that at the recent UNGA, Iceland and Suriname announced that they will be conducting men-only conference on gender sensitization campaign to secure greater cooperation and understanding from men. A welcome move indeed.

It must be mentioned here that some of the greatest reformists of modern India were men, whose contribution has immensely helped to transform the lives of Indian women. The crusade of Raja Ram Mohan Roy, Vidyasagar, Jyotiba Phule against the evils of child marriage & sati and promotion of education of girls, widow remarriage are extremely commendable in a period where going against the norm could mean potential isolation from the society at large. They had the courage, will and determination to set the wrongs of Brahmanical tradition right which in turn gradually changed the conditions of women in India to a large extent. Still there is a long way to go.

Secondly, right to equality has to be implemented in earnest where women have equal rights just like men. A little over hundred years ago, New Zealand became the first country to allow universal adult suffrage that included women, ahead of other western countries. The first European country to do so was Finland followed by other Nordic countries. Today if one takes stock of the situation, Nordic countries are far ahead in terms of social well-being and rights granted to women along with other HDI factors. In every sphere of the society, women there today occupy important positions and have demonstrated their capabilities directly contributing to the growth of these nations. An example to put it in perspective – Major General Kristin Lund of Norway became the first female force commander of UN Peacekeeping Mission in Cyprus.

Major General Kristin Lund with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

The scenario in India is vastly different despite our constitution having provisions to ensure gender equality. The apex democratic institution of India – the Indian Parliament is yet to pass the Women’s Reservation Bill that reserves 33% [and not 50%] of the seats for women at both central and state legislatures. Due to prejudice, aborting female fetuses was a very common recurrence in India, which exists even to this day despite enacting Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Prohibition of Sex Selection) Act. The incidences have tapered down, but has not stopped completely. This has resulted in a skewed sex ratio in India where there are 940 females for every 1000 males – an alarming trend that has other ramifications like purchasing brides especially in north Indian states; a complete devastating infringement on women’s right and a direct challenge to women empowerment.

While India is ahead of many nations for right to equality at workplace, for example, providing mandatory maternity leaves to all female employees for a period of 84 days by law, it is not universally implemented, especially for those women working in informal sectors. Additionally, latest NSSO survey reveals that 2 out of 3 Indian women in their prime working years are engaged in unpaid housework. There is also an informal discrimination of wages and promotion even in formal sectors as well.

In most of these cases, the biggest roadblock seems to be education and poverty eradication – the third reason why women needs to be empowered in these areas that are critical for their upliftment in the society. Government and NGOs have taken definitive steps to battle the same. But it is happening in pockets. Social sector schemes like MNREGA have given definite employment to a big percentage of rural women, who otherwise would have had to look for jobs at a lower wage. Various women centric self-help groups and micro-finance institutions have sprung up to help women earn their own livelihood, making them less dependent on others. Swayamsidha Programme run by Ministry of Women and Child Development is one such example. Similarly, there are various state run schemes that focus solely on women, especially those working in informal sectors. But unfortunately, many of these schemes are mired in corruption which needs to be checked while the real beneficiaries are left high and dry.

It is encouraging to note that the introduction of Mid-Day meal scheme has not only reduced the school dropouts especially among girls, their participation is also increasing. Many of the state governments have further encouraged girl child to enroll in schools by providing special assistance programmes like gifting bicycles, books, etc. – such social welfare schemes need to be stepped up further. If Malala Yousufai, the youngest recipient of Nobel Peace Prize can fight for her right to education in Taliban infested North-West Pakistan, India, which enjoys democracy and freedom can definitely achieve goal of 100% education of girl child through proper implementation of RTE Act.

Fourthly, women’s health and sanitation is a big concern. Though India has been able to reduce MMR to 178 deaths per lakh live births, a key Millennium Development Goal, but it still falls below the target of 100 per lakh live births. Women have been empowered by government to be able to go for institutionalized deliveries as envisaged in Janani Suraksha scheme and take care of her livelihood during her pregnancy and post-pregnancy through Indira Gandhi Matritva Sahyog Yojana Scheme where government compensates wage loss for expecting mothers. Similarly, government’s latest movement of building clean India through construction of toilets in rural areas and important public places, preventing open defecation is a welcome move for sanitation needs of women and general population as a whole.

Shakti Devi being felicitated by UN officials

Last but not the least, an important area of focus should be women’s safety and legal assistance. While India has to cause to be proud of Shakti Devi of J&K police, serving in UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan who has been awarded UN International Female Police Peacekeeper Award, 2014 for her efforts towards helping victims of sexual and gender-based violence in Afghanistan, India as a nation has been put under scanner due to poor performance related to women’s safety. The Nirbhaya incident of Dec 16, Badaun Rape in UP, recurrent rapes and sexual violence against females not even sparing infants & toddlers are turning our society back in time. In a recent judgment, the honorable Supreme Court mentioned that the women are not even safe in matrimonial homes where there are instances of dowry deaths, physical violence, etc. Despite passing the Criminal Law Amendment Act 2013, on the recommendations Justice Verma committee, things have changed little. Those clamoring for capital punishment for these crimes against women have seen a spike of such incidents in the recent past. The only remedy lies in changing the mindset of the society, especially males, imbibing in them the values of respecting women, in addition to enactment of stringent laws, putting in place an expeditious judicial and sensitive police system.

Even when it came to succession of properties, only recently, wives and daughters of the deceased have been given the legal right to claim property which otherwise was the dominion of male members of the family only.

If one takes a holistic view of the entire situation currently, India is ranked 132 out of 187 in Gender Inequality Index according to 2013 report of GHDR, even below Pakistan. This is a definitive cause for worry, but does not essentially mean that our efforts so far went in vain. There are imperceptible changes that have taken place, but in order to bring in a visible dynamic change, there needs to be cohesiveness in the plans and schemes that are being executed by the government. Our honorable Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has often emphasized on India’s Demographic Dividend as an edge over other countries. If we have to utilize it effectively, women empowerment has to be the most serious challenge that new government must face since women form 49% of our population. Keeping women empowerment out of development ambit will essentially be a stumbling block in India’s development despite launching radical and new schemes of financial inclusion, poverty elimination, National Rural Health Mission, Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan, Make in India, etc.

A lot has been done so far and still a lot remains to be done to reach a stage where an Indian woman can proudly proclaim to the world that she is truly empowered and free from the clutches of family, society, poverty, inequality and illiteracy. To conclude the prospect of women empowerment presently, the following lines from Robert Frost’s poem aptly sums it up in my opinion:

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,

But I have promises to keep,

And miles to go before I sleep,

And miles to go before I sleep.

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Turkey Shoot in Turkey

2016 has been one of the bloodiest years so far in this decade. Extremism is spreading far and wide. What was typically considered a middle-east and south-east Asia problem, has effectively taken roots in Europe. And that unfortunately is here to stay – a harsh reality. On the positive note, it is fortunate that Europe has better gun control laws than US, else it would have been much worse to rein in the dissidents, given the current spate of lone wolf attacks across Europe. The Metropolitan Police Chief, UK, Sir Bernard Hogan Howe has clearly stated that it is not a matter of if, but rather when a terror attack may take place in UK. It is worrisome indeed.

But more interesting and seemingly out of context was the recent events in Turkey. The coup doesn’t really surprise me, though its failure does. Turkey is at a critical juncture –  militarily, politically and strategically. It has the second largest army by size in Europe and fairly modern and well trained. Being a NATO partner, it’s primary responsibility is to thwart any possible aggression by ISIS into Europe. But the dynamics of engagement are extremely complex.

A simple example of this complex equation is the dealing with the Kurds. The 3 main Kurdish groups based on their location –  the Turkish Kurds, Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds. The below chart depicts the relationship they have with Turkey and vice-versa and how they are battling ISIS together – a multi-player war fighting each other.

On one hand, Turkey is at loggerheads with PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] and YPG, while on the other, Turkey does support the Iraqi Kurds or the Peshmarga troops. One of the greatest dichotomy is how Turkey selectively allows arms and ammunition to pass on to the Iraqi Kurds while blocking the same for the PKK, obviously keeping its own national interests in mind. A weakened PKK and YPG is beneficial for Turkey. A country which is democratically ruled, is well allowed to make its policies – but unfortunately as is the case with all such outcomes, civil rights and liberties have been curtailed to rein in these dissidents.

From strategic perspective, not only Turkey is a NATO ally with ISIS at its borders, it acts as a buffer state to keep the menace of ISIS at bay. Its geostrategic location has been fully utilised by NATO troops to launch countless raids on ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has also been well funded to stem the tide of refugees pouring into Europe. Recent talks are also underway to include Turkey in EU.

Now, it needs further analysis why the coup was orchestrated and it easily points to one key factor – Mr. Ergodan’s policies. It needs to be lauded here that Turkey is one of the few countries in the world that has majority Muslim population and has been able to remain secular in its outlook fundamentally and constitutionally. The President, Mr Ergodan, is seemingly popular, but there have been accusations for centralising the power and slowly eroding the secular outlook that Turkey enjoys.

Fundamentally, the Turkish Military and Judiciary believes themselves to be the guardians of ideals on which Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the country. That is why, one has witnessed the dismissal of huge number of judges in the coup aftermath. There were four successful coup attempts in Turkey in the past which was able to remove the governments. Fifth resulted in a disastrous failure.

There have been finger pointing, mud-slinging and accusations at the various instigators involved both within and outside the country [Fethullah Gulen], but the question remains – why the coup failed and what were the objectives?

While the objectives of this coup were not clear, but the factors mentioned above, could easily provide some clarity as to why the coup was orchestrated. The major cause of failure can be attributed to one single fact – the interconnected world that we live in – internet and social media coupled with network centric lives that we are now used to played a critical role for coup failure. The coup plotters were not able to block all media communications. Mr. Ergodan was able to connect to the outside world through FaceTime and had effectively used social media to instigate common public to rise against the military to oppose them, within hours of attempt on his life, despite blocking state media channels. We were able to get live updates of the situation through Periscope views, twitter and even Facebook Live! It is the single biggest cause for failure according to me that has worked against the coup plotters. They did not envisage such a scenario despite trying to cut access to internet. Also, there was lack of total public support.

If the coup would have been successful, would it have led to a better Turkey? Maybe, but at what cost? Still countless lives would have been lost. Now that the coup was a failure, it has weakened the Turkish state further – vast number of senior military personnel have been dismissed leaving Turkey militarily weak. It will take Turkey decades to replace the losses. Mr. Ergodan, in all his rights will come down heavily on the dissidents and choke up opposition further while cementing his position. Death penalty may be re-instigated. Open discourse and debates will be frowned upon. Voice of democracy, in the name of democracy will be muffled. It is a sad and sorry state indeed.

In my book, “Game of Anarchy”, I argue on these points, how difficult it is to attempt a coup in this digital age and era. It is seemingly impossible to cut off all communication channels and ensure radio silence. Common man has a voice of his own and through digital interconnectedness can topple governments as Arab Spring demonstrated. In Turkey’s case, common man rose to the occasion to resist the coup. There were even live feeds that showed people beating up tank commanders, dragging them out from the tanks. This reminds me the picture of a lone individual standing up courageously against an oncoming tank in Tienanmen Square, China in 1989 – what a stark contrast!

In developed and developing countries today, the age of dictatorship is almost over. It still remains in the under-developed countries like DPR Korea, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, etc. But it will steadily decline as the world gets more interconnected and openly accepts the idea of liberty and equality.

In the book “Game of Anarchy”, there is one more angle that was touched upon – constitutional strength that is conferred upon the civilians vs. the army and whether army can remain apolitical when internal crises arise. As is the case with Indian Army, which has remained always apolitical vs. Pakistan military which has overthrown multiple governments over the past 70 yrs of independence. It was the strength and test of character of Indian Army where there was debate whether to involve the armed forces directly in combating the Maoist insurgencies that affects 13 states in India – the then Indian Army General cautioned that it is akin to engaging the army to fire at its own citizens; eventually only Indian Air Force was involved, and that too at a passive role. An army when called upon, it destroys everything in its path effectively – the very reason for its existence; and hence cannot be used to tackle civilian outcry everytime, except in certain dire circumstances. As someone commented, Army is a broad sword and not a scalpel.

In conclusion, this is not the last coup that we will see. The one in Turkey is a precursor to much more complex methods that will originate over a period of time that will topple unpopular governments when voice of dissidence is choked. The variables will change, so will be the methods. But this coup failure will stand out as one of the reminders and lessons to future coup plotters that even the best of the plots can and will fail if public support is missing and technological innovations aren’t factored in. The power is effectively at the hands of the people!

“Game of Anarchy” is available on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Game-Anarchy-Kenneth-Jones-ebook/dp/B01J6MR6GS

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