World is witnessing incredible changes in the sphere of
environment sustainability in this decade. The steps taken, though tentative,
are instrumental in reversing the damages caused due to rapid industrialization
over the last 2 centuries.
Kyoto Protocol has been hailed as the most successful
initiative so far that had the blessings and willingness of more than 190
countries – an amazing feat. It has been able to heal the ozone layer to an
extent in a short span of 2 decades. More recent Paris Agreement on Climate
Change was ratified by again a similar number of countries in less than 11
months of its conception – another wonderful feat indeed considering the
challenges that are inherently associated with such a large number of countries
with their own demands and needs & getting the same accommodated to
everyone’s satisfaction as was highlighted by Prof. Ghosh of CEEW at the
seminar conducted by Takshashila in Delhi on 5th Nov, 2016.
But few questions remain.
One should ask – Is it enough? There is enough criticism on
the content of the Paris Agreement. Firstly, it is largely non-binding on the
member countries. Secondly, many estimates suggest that the current commitment
of NDCs are too low to restrict temperature rise below 2 degrees, while
restricting it below 1.5 degrees by 2100 is more preferable. Thirdly, there are
enough caveats for the developed countries to bypass the existing commitments
[like purchasing Carbon Credits] – which no doubt is a great instrument in
investing in cleaner energy in developing worlds; but essentially provides the
right to pollute by more wealthy countries. Fourthly, it has a finance
component of USD 100 Billion to be invested by 2025 which seems to be a
challenge.
With respect to the last point about climate finance, Green
Climate Fund [GCF] was proposed, established and operationalised in COP 15
[Copenhagen Accord], COP 16 [Cancun] and COP 17 [Durban] respectively. The
objective was to generate a fund of USD 100 Billion by 2020. But only USD 10.3
Billion could be raised from member countries – with major European Countries
facing tough financial situation during the period. It seems the that finance
component of the new Paris Agreement is the extension of the same with an
extended target. How much of it would be feasible and successful is yet to be
seen; given the history of poor generation of finance from the wealthy
countries who have a moral obligation to invest in such areas that focus on
cleaner technologies.
But still Paris agreement is a positive step in the right direction.
It focusses primarily on adaptation of new technologies rather than Mitigation.
Thereby, it stresses on use and investment in cleaner and newer technology,
rather than implementing safeguard measures and workarounds on the existing
polluting means of energy generation. It will be a quantum jump for the
developing nations and underdeveloped nations to directly use and utilise these
technologies which do not come cheap. It is in the world’s best interests that
the developed countries provide these technologies at an effective viable cost
and subsidize where necessary along with a liberal IPR policy where required -
in order to allow these technologies to be widely adopted; so that the social
benefits are not traded off with development goals of these nations.
What should India do?
India has done quite a lot in this regard – slowly gaining
traction as a pioneer of thought leadership in this arena. India has in place
relevant laws enacted domestically to counter and support the stand it needs to
take globally. But more importantly, Mr. Modi has led from the front with the
foundation of International Solar Alliance – a grouping of 121 poorer and
developing countries, pledging growth with the help of greener energy.
Converting this motley alliance of 121 countries into a strong buyers’ club
effectively has put the ball in the court of the richer developed countries
that has a moral obligation to financially support these countries in the goal
of achieving energy independence through cleaner energy without compromising on
the developmental aspects.
One aspect that goes in India’s favour is that, there can be
proper planning to add new energy sources to the existing power grids –
evaluating in advance whether it will be through existing standard power generation
techniques primarily thermal and nuclear power plants or through other means
like hydel, tidal, wind or solar. GoI has already announced the target of
175,000 MW of renewable energy production to be achieved by 2022 as follows:
100,000 MW from solar power, 60,000 MW from wind energy, 10,000 MW from biomass
and 5,000 MW from small hydro power projects. This provides a clear sense of
direction.
Subsidies are already in place for both producers and
consumers promoting solar energy adoption, especially at individual unit level.
But unfortunately, the residential units figure at the bottom of the list of
priorities for availing the subsidies [1]. Understandably, schools and
government institutions like hospitals are higher on priority, but low income
groups need to be kept in mind, specially first time energy consumers who may
not have the purchasing potential to avail these schemes. There are few pockets
in the country where off-grid subsidised solar energy sets are being provided
at a minimal price, but as mentioned, these are happening in pockets.
Second aspect to be looked into is how soon can India reach
its peak energy demands? This has various aspects and implications. Firstly,
peaking is important to consider if the target of temperature rise has to be
contained below 1.5 degrees by 2100. Secondly, later we peak, lesser time we
have to cut down on emissions. Thirdly, can India afford to declare the peak
emissions like China did [2030] at this stage? This doesn’t augur well for
India at the moment, and hence no peak year has been mentioned. It would be
more apt to look at the consumption pattern for another decade before a peak
year is committed – as we are far behind China as far as development goals are
concerned. It is a typical catch-22 situation. So, in short it is in India’s
best interests to peak its energy demands as fast as possible – implementing
and upgrading its existing energy infrastructure as per the policy defined
above.
Last aspect being, can there be some radical means to bypass
the entire discussion of energy savings and fight between rich and poorer
countries on clean energy adoption and technology transfer?
We need radical technologies to effectively change the
current pace of environment degradation – many existing estimates suggest that
we might be a little late in containing the damage [2] [3]. There are
ground-breaking new technologies like SolarCity and Hyperloop One that are
being worked upon which will completely revamp two keys areas where energies
are consumed in bulk – Housing and Transportation. Elon Musk’s overall objective
is to tie in both of these horizontally with his Tesla project thereby creating
an effective loop of energy savings. And the best place on Earth to start with,
on a large scale should be China and India – two of the largest and fastest
economies where appetite for energy is going to increase in the coming decades.
Both India and China has to aggressively support such innovative technologies
and embed them as part of national policies on energy – so that the right
message is sent out to the world that we are indeed serious about climate
change it is not all rhetoric and that we will walk the talk. The current
challenges seem to be the investment climate of these countries coupled with
complex bureaucracies that has a negative effect on investment from these
companies in the energy sector.
In conclusion, there are technologies that are focussing on
improving the efficiency of existing energy consumption – vehicles, power
generators, etc. A renewed focus is on reduce, reuse and recycle. Actions also underway in creating carbon sinks to suck up atmospheric carbon-di-oxide that acts
as a greenhouse gas. But the rhetoric is primarily around containing the temp
increase below 2 degrees which may not be enough, especially for island
countries. Developing countries and India also need to keep their
self-interests intact and there are ways and means that have been highlighted
above. It may be about time to take a step back and reassess if the existing
solutions should be adequate to address the situation or should we focus more
on new radical technologies and investment techniques that has more potential
in saving the day and assess their impact – however radical it sounds.
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